India must study China’s domestic politics more closely: Gokhale | Hyderabad News
Hyderabad: Indians are obsessed with the politics of Pakistan and Bangladesh but have little knowledge of China, said former foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale, recommending that India study Chinese domestic politics to a much greater extent than it does.The author of China’s Wars, Gokhale said there had been only two occasions when power was transferred relatively peacefully in the history of the Chinese Communist Party.“China doesn’t have a succession plan. There is no heir apparent. As Xi Jinping grows older — he is soon going to be 75 — you’re going to have factionalism and a succession struggle. That’s a political crisis potentially brewing, and one possibility when a political crisis gets really problematic is an external adventure. And we are one of the potential targets for that. So, I think it’s very important that we study the domestic politics of China,” he said at an event in Hyderabad on Tuesday.The former Ambassador of India to China said the Chinese military and its capabilities, economic power and diplomatic influence are all important when deciding war and peace.“But do we know enough about its domestic politics to know what is likely to trigger a potential conflict against us?” he asked.The 67-year-old, however, added that it is not in China’s interest to fight a war with India.“For a couple of reasons. One, because there is no predictable outcome. I don’t think they will have a decisive victory. And in that sense, it does not play with China’s image, which is that the United States is the disruptive, aggressive, assertive power in this world, and we are the peaceful, stabilising, beneficial power. That whole thing will go out the window. Secondly, they have to have a decisive victory over India to claim a victory. We only have to defend, but they have to decisively win. Otherwise, the population is going to ask them, ‘Why have you gone to war with India?’” he added.
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