El Niño shadow over T: Officials warn of water crunch, economic fallout | Hyderabad News

Done: arunHyderabad: With El Niño conditions threatening to extend Telangana’s rainfall deficit, a committee of senior officials has warned of a twin challenge: Pressure on Hyderabad’s drinking water reserves and a potential slowdown in the state’s economic growth.The committee’s report has urged the govt to prepare a comprehensive contingency plan to safeguard water, power and public finances if dry conditions persist.The assessment cautioned that Hyderabad’s drinking water reserves may be sufficient for only about three months, while a moderation of just 1 to 2 percentage points in Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) growth could significantly dent Telangana’s own-tax revenues.The state’s GSDP was estimated at ₹16.10 lakh crore in 2024-25 and ₹18 lakh crore in 2025-26, with a target of ₹20 lakh crore for 2026-27. Officials warned that any slowdown triggered by deficient rainfall could affect revenue collections and overall economic activity.According to the report, the biggest risk stems from agriculture. Poor rainfall could reduce farm incomes, weaken rural demand, and impact sales of tractors, farm equipment, and consumer durables. Purchases of items such as two-wheelers, televisions, and refrigerators could decline by 30-40%.The impact may spill over into construction and real estate, particularly if water shortages and high temperatures continue in urban areas. Lower business activity could affect GST collections, while a slowdown in property transactions may hit revenues from stamps and registrations.The report recalled the strong El Niño episode of 2015-16, when Telangana’s agriculture sector registered negative growth of 7.8%. With the state’s economy now substantially larger, officials cautioned that a similar shock could have wider consequences.To ease the potential fiscal burden, the committee suggested that the Centre be urged to treat the situation as a national disaster and permit Telangana to raise its FRBM borrowing limit from 3% to 3.5%. The additional headroom could provide a borrowing capacity of up to ₹9,000 crore.On the waterfront, officials warned that if rainfall does not improve, reservoirs serving Hyderabad may come under severe stress. The city may have to rely more heavily on Nagarjuna Sagar and Yellampalli, including utilisation of dead storage, while emergency pumping arrangements could become necessary.Groundwater levels across Telangana have already fallen by 2 to 4 metres on average and could decline by another 3 metres by the end of summer. More than 250 mandals could slip into dry zone conditions if rainfall deficiency continues.The report also flagged concerns over Mission Bhagiratha supplies, noting that declining flows in rivers and streams, coupled with shrinking tank storage, could affect both drinking water and irrigation during the rabi season. Reduced water availability in Krishna and Godavari projects could further constrain supplies to ayacut areas.Power demand is another concern. Telangana recorded an all-time peak demand of 19,543 MW on Sept 9. With greater dependence on borewell irrigation and cooling appliances during prolonged dry spells, demand could remain above 19,500 MW, forcing the state to rely more on costly open market purchases. The additional expenditure could range between ₹3,000 crore and ₹5,000 crore.The report also warned of pressure on food supplies and prices. Vegetable cultivation could shrink, affecting the availability of tomatoes, onions, green chillies and ginger, while foodgrain and pulse production may fall by 30-40%. Milk production could decline by 20-25% due to water shortages, fodder scarcity and high temperatures, potentially increasing retail prices.Prolonged rainfall deficiency could also hurt rural employment, triggering migration to urban centres. The assessment identified parts of Mahbubnagar, Nalgonda, Rangareddy, Medak and Nizamabad as districts that may face heightened stress if dry conditions continue.Govt preparedness measuresEmergency pumping arrangements at Nagarjuna Sagar and Yellampalli to maintain drinking water supplies.Special emergency drinking water funds for Assembly constituencies and municipalities.Permission for district collectors to hire private borewells and arrange free tanker supplies in water-stressed areas.Seeking additional workdays under the rural jobs scheme to reduce migration from villages to cities.Setting up fodder banks and drinking water facilities for livestock.Promoting less water-intensive crops based on groundwater availability and making alternative seeds available on subsidy.Financial flexibility for power utilities to purchase electricity from the open market to maintain uninterrupted supply