El Niño may expose hidden groundwater risks in Telangana, say experts | Hyderabad News

Hyderabad: With El Niño raising concerns over rainfall stress, experts are warning that Telangana’s drought vulnerability may be greater than groundwater extraction figures suggest, exposing a critical gap in how groundwater is interpreted under India’s drought assessment framework.Despite drawing only 47% of its annual extractable groundwater, Telangana’s hard-rock aquifers store limited reserves and can deteriorate rapidly after a poor monsoon, making the state more vulnerable to prolonged rainfall deficits than the numbers alone indicate.India’s drought assessment framework, revised over the years and expanded in 2020, relies on multiple indicators including rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation, cropped area and hydrological parameters such as groundwater, reservoir levels and stream flows. It is therefore not based on rainfall alone, and groundwater forms a key component of the overall drought assessment.However, experts argue that groundwater indicators need to be interpreted differently in states such as Telangana, particularly when rainfall remains deficient for a prolonged period.Agricultural scientist GV Ramanjaneyulu said groundwater extraction figures should be viewed in the context of a state’s geological characteristics.Punjab extracts around 156% of its annual extractable groundwater, Rajasthan 147% and Haryana nearly 137%, while Telangana’s extraction rate is much lower at around 47%.But a lower extraction rate does not automatically translate into lower drought vulnerability, he said.According to Ramanjaneyulu, peninsular hard-rock aquifers found across Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra have limited storage capacity and can respond sharply even to a single year of poor rainfall.The distinction becomes particularly significant during an El Niño year. Reduced rainfall leads to lower groundwater recharge, while continued agricultural pumping places additional pressure on available resources. In hard-rock regions, the impact of a weak monsoon can quickly surface through falling groundwater levels and declining borewell yields.Telangana already tracks groundwater stress separately through its ground water drought index. In July 2025, six mandals were classified as facing extreme groundwater drought, three as severe, eight as moderate and 19 as mild, while 585 of the state’s 621 mandals were categorised as normal.Experts say the debate is not about removing groundwater from drought assessments, but about giving greater weight to factors such as aquifer characteristics, recharge potential, groundwater trends and dependence on borewells.“A relatively low groundwater extraction percentage may indicate lower pressure on resources, but it does not necessarily show how much water an aquifer can provide during a prolonged rainfall deficit,” agricultural economist Ravi Kanneganti said.For Telangana, they say, the unfolding El Niño conditions could provide a crucial test of whether the hydrological component of India’s drought framework is capable of identifying groundwater stress early, before it develops into widespread agricultural distress.WHAT COULD CHANGE IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT– Move from drought declaration to early warning– Create a baseline vulnerability score for every district and mandal– Combine rainfall deficit, dry spells, soil moisture and crop stress– Assess groundwater condition and aquifer vulnerability– Include soil health and cropping patterns– Track dependence on water intensive crops– Factor in farm debt and economic vulnerability– Combine satellite data, weather forecasts and field observations– Introduce graded risk levels instead of only drought or no drought– Trigger contingency crops, seeds, water conservation and credit support before crop failure– Update risk regularly during the agricultural season rather than relying mainly on seasonal assessment